Television interview to Reuters

23 June 2009

The Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization, Néstor Osorio, would like to provide clarification on comments made in a television interview to Reuters, in London, on 23 June. According to the transcript, it was indicated that the next Brazilian crop could reach “close to 60 million bags”. This does not reflect at all the remarks made at the time, which dealt with the biennial nature of Brazilian coffee production, in which off-years with low production (such as is forecast in 2009/10) are followed by on-years with higher output. As such, it is well known that the next Brazilian crop will be higher than the current one. It was said that there is a theoretical potential for Brazil to produce crops close to 60 million bags, a point that has been made by many coffee analysts. However, it was pointed out that this would require ideal climatic and economic conditions. At no point was it implied that such conditions could be expected to prevail in next year’s crop, even if only because it is premature to speak about the 2010/11 crop at this time.

The ICO does not produce crop estimates for any Member country and relies on production figures supplied by its designated official contacts. This can be seen in the April edition of its Monthly Market Report, which states that: “With regard to crop year 2009/10, I have just received the second estimate from CONAB, the government agency responsible for agricultural estimates in Brazil. Production is forecast to reach 39.1 million bags, of which 28.3 million bags of Arabica and 10.8 million of Robusta. I am waiting for information from other origins before providing an estimate of world production in 2009/10.” This continues to be the official position of the ICO.

The Executive Director hopes this will dispel any misunderstanding that may have arisen.

ICO Indicator prices
(US cents/lb)  2/2/2023
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Other Milds 226.26 +1.4%
Brazilian Naturals 192.86 +0.6%
Robustas 102.00 -0.3%

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