Supply Surplus Weighs on Global Coffee Prices
3 September 2019
The ICO composite indicator fell by 6.7% to 96.07 US cents/lb in August 2019, compared to July 2019 and by 13.6% from a high of 111.21 US cents/lb in October 2018. The daily composite indicator has averaged 100.72 US cents/lb for coffee year 2018/19 through 30 August 2019. Total exports in July 2019 amounted to 11.34 million bags, 9.5% higher than July 2018 while shipments in the first ten months of coffee year 2018/19 reached 109.41 million bags, 10.2% higher than the same period last year. Ample supplies from a 3.9% increase in global production to 169.73 million bags have fuelled exports. The majority of coffee continues to be exported as green coffee, accounting for 91.3% of total coffee shipped between October 2018 and July 2019. Global coffee demand is estimated to grow by 2.1% to 164.77 million bags, with growth in Asia & Oceania and Africa outpacing other regions. However, 2018/19 is estimated to end with a surplus of 4.96 million bags, making it the second consecutive year of surplus. The cumulative oversupply over the last two seasons is estimated at 7 million bags, which is one of the main explanatory factors for current low coffee price levels.
Find out more in the ICO's latest Coffee Market Report>>
|ICO Indicator prices
(US cents/lb) 2/2/2023
1 October is #InternationalCoffeeDay
Every year on 1 October, the world comes together to celebrate coffee and recognise the millions of people across the globe - from farmers, to roasters, baristas, coffee shop owners and more - who work hard to create and serve the beverage we all love.
This year we're on a collective mission to help coffee farmers around the world receive a fair, living income. But to do it we need your help, find out more at: International Coffee Day
Latest ICO Studies & Reports
ICO Coffee Break Series
The ICO has released research on the impact of covid-19 on the global coffee industry.
- Impact of covid-19 on the global coffee sector: The Demand Side (April 2020)
- Volatile coffee prices: covid-19 and market fundamentals (May 2020)
- Impact of covid-19 on the global coffee sector: Survey of ICO exporting Members (July 2020)
Coffee Development Report 2019. Growing for prosperity: Economic viability as the catalyst for a sustainable coffee sector (Published October 2019)
Futures markets: the role of non-commercial traders (Published March 2019)
Profitability of coffee farming in selected Latin American countries - interim report (Published March 2019)
Survey on the impact of low coffee prices on exporting countries (Published March 2019)
Emerging coffee markets: South and East Asia (Published September 2018)
Guide to Access Green and Climate Funding: The Global Environment Facility (Published October 2018)
Role of coffee futures markets in discovering prices for Latin American producers (Published September 2018)
National Quality Standards (Published September 2018)
Gender equality in the coffee sector (Published September 2018)
Maximum residue limits (Published September 2018)
Country Coffee Profile: Ghana (Published September 2018)
Mixtures and substitutes (Published September 2018)
Gender equality in the coffee sector (Published April 2018)
Development of coffee trade flows (Published April 2018)
ICO Coffee Library
The ICO has a unique Library containing an international reference collection, built up over 40 years of more than 13,000 monographs (books, reports, theses, pamphlets) and over 200 periodical titles covering all aspects of coffee.